Covid-19 that originated in Wuhan, China in December 2019 has made an unprecedented impact all over the world. However, based on previous research and studies, it has been seen that the impact is disproportionately higher on the poor in developing countries. The impact of covid-19 on the poor can be seen in the three dimensions. First, infection-related vulnerabilities such as health impacts due to a congested and unhygienic environment; insufficient treatment in an inadequate medical system; Second, lockdown-driven vulnerabilities such as job loss; return migration; suspension of remittances; and third, school closure related vulnerabilities i.e., learning loss; school discontinuation risk; child marriage for girls.
In
response to the coronavirus pandemic, the Bangladesh government announced the
closures of schools in mid-March 2020. 78 weeks later, experiencing one of the
longest coronavirus shutdowns in the world, all schools and colleges are
reopening in phases that began on September 12, 2021. Various studies have been
conducted to understand the scope and scale of the long-term impact of the long
school closure on the country’s millions of children in terms of learning loss,
deterioration of mental health, increasing child labor, and child marriage. Poverty,
family stress and tension, and violence against children and women have
increased. Social and economic inequalities and educational disparities have
widened from the pre-pandemic level.
UNESCO has
rightly called the learning loss caused by the Covid-19 pandemic "a
generational catastrophe." Noted educationist Professor Manzoor Ahmed of
Brac University thinks that the present generation who lost almost two school
years may not only grow up with irrecoverable education deficits but also their
adult life and performance can be affected. Furthermore, it, in turn, may have
an adverse impact even on the next generation (Ahmed, August 10, 2021).
To
minimize learning loss, the Bangladesh government took a number of initiatives
including distance education initiatives such as TV programs and online
lessons. However, evidence from surveys and expert opinion suggests that these
initiatives have not benefited the large majority of children because of
connectivity and device problems (Ahmed, August 10, 2021).
In
a 2021 discussion paper, Momoe Makino of the Institute of Developing Economies,
IDE-JETRO, Abu Shonchoy of Florida International University, and Zaki Wahhaj of
the University of Kent have also studied how school closures potentially
affected children through multiple pathways. For their study, the Gaibandha
district in the Rangpur division in northern Bangladesh was chosen because this
is one of the most poverty-stricken regions of the country with a poverty rate
22% points higher than the rest of the country (World Bank 2019). The study of
Makino, Shonchoy, and Wahhaj (2021) predicts that one possible consequence of
school closures is school discontinuation and dropout, especially among
secondary school students. In the Gaibandha district, primary and secondary
completion rates in education are 24% and 11% respectively compared to the
national average rates of 33% and 13%, respectively. They anticipate that
school closures during an entire academic year can exacerbate these existing
regional gaps in educational outcomes.
Another
potential consequence of school closures in the region is to increase the rate
of female early marriage. According to Child Marriage Restraint Act of 2017,
marriage below the age of 18 for women and 21 for men is prohibited. In practice,
the minimum age threshold is frequently ignored and rarely enforced.
To explore
the impact of the COVID-19 lockdown and school closures on rural families and
their children, Makino, Shonchoy, and Wahhaj (2021) conducted a
structured telephone-based survey called “COVID-19 Rural Household Survey in
Gaibandha, Bangladesh” (referred to as the “CorGaB” survey hereafter) in late
June and early July 2020. The CorGaB survey respondents previously participated
in baseline surveys in two different research projects in Gaibandha conducted
by MOMODa Foundation, a
research-oriented development organization in Bangladesh that aims at creating
a society with reduced poverty and inequality.
Both
baseline surveys were initiated and completed before the COVID-19 induced
lockdown. The first project sample includes all households in 240 targeted
communities with unmarried girls aged 13–17. The survey was conducted from
February 10 to March 20, 2020, and its sample size is 2,568 households. The households in the second
project were randomly chosen from all eligible households in 164 targeted
communities having at least one unmarried female member aged 15–29. The
baseline survey was conducted from October 3 to November 30, 2019, and its
sample size is 1,524 households. All the respondents in the two baseline
surveys were targeted for interviews in the CorGaB survey. The phone-based
CorGaB survey was conducted during the period June 21 to July 9, 2020.
Makino,
Shonchoy, and Wahhaj (2021) found that among children enrolled in school before
the lockdown and unmarried, about three in four are, according to the
respondent, very likely to return to school when the school closure ends, with
no significant difference in probability between girls and boys (74% and 73%
respectively). Among girls, 7% are already engaged or married and, on average,
this engagement/marriage took place 1.2 years before the survey.
For
unmarried girls, the survey included a question on whether there were any
ongoing discussions within the household or family about her marriage during or
immediately after the end of the lockdown. Such discussions were reported for
10% of the unmarried girls in the sample. The lockdown made it difficult to
have large gatherings that are common to wedding celebrations in the South
Asian region. The survey finds that 5.5% of the sample households reported
postponing a wedding during the lockdown. In this context, marriage intentions
– as captured by the question on marriage discussions – may serve as a better
measure of child marriage risk than the incidence of actual marriages during
the lockdown.
As
expected, a regression analysis by Makino, Shonchoy, and Wahhaj (2021) finds
that the likelihood of marriage/engagement and marriage-related discussions is
higher for older girls. In particular, the study finds that the estimated
probability of marriage-related discussions during the lockdown increases
steadily with the age of the girl. All estimated coefficients for girls aged 15
and older are highly significant. In any
case, the finding that certain types of adverse shocks tend to increase
marriage-related discussions suggests that any lull in early marriages during
the lockdown period may be temporary and that a relaxation of lockdown rules or
improvement in the households’ economic situation may lead to a rise in early
marriages.
Thus,
the findings of the study offer a cautionary tale regarding the potential
long-term effects of the pandemic for girls in developing countries like
Bangladesh that highlights the urgent need for policymakers to take appropriate
countermeasures to preserve recent achievements in education and child rights,
including gender parity in education and increase in the age at marriage. It is
to be noted here that the study is continuing, and more rounds of data are
being collected to shed more light on this important issue.
References
Ahmed, M.
(August 10, 2021). 500 Days of School Closure: Averting a generational
catastrophe. The Daily Star. Retrieved from:
Amin, S.,
Bajracharya, A., 2011. Costs of marriage - marriage transactions in the
developing world. Promoting Healthy, Safe and Productive Transitions to
Adulthood . Population Council Brief no. 35, March 2011
Amirapu,
A., M.N. Asadullah and Z. Wahhaj, 2020. Can Child Marriage Law Change Attitudes
and Behaviour? Experimental Evidence from an Information Intervention in
Bangladesh. EDI Working Paper Series.
Asadullah,
M.N. and Wahhaj, Z., 2016. Child Marriage Law and Freedom of Choice in
Bangladesh. Economic Political Weekly, 16 January 2016, Vol. LI No 3.
Asadullah,
M.N. and Wahhaj, Z., 2019. Early Marriage, Social Networks and the Transmission
of Norms. Economica, 86(344), pp.801-831.
Makino,
M., Shonchoy, A.S. and Wahhaj, Z. (2021) Early Effects of the covid-19 Lockdown
on Children in Rural Bangladesh. Discussion Paper 2102. Canterbury: School of
Economics, University of Kent
0 Comments